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Ten Tips on Where to Put Your Money NOW
By Peter Passell,
Author of Where to Put Your Money NOW: How to Make Super-Safe
Investments and Secure Your Future
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As Editor of the Milken Institute’s quarterly
economic journal, The Milken Institute Review, and with a Ph.D. in economics
from Yale University, Peter Passell possesses an appreciation for the fickle
nature of our economy. In Where to Put Your Money Now: How to Make
Super-Safe Investments and Secure Your Future (Pocket Books; $12.00), he
efficiently tackles the problems facing investors today and poses practical
and immediate solutions. His book provides timely remedies, while
recognizing that as the world of investing is constantly changing, so too
must the solutions.
Home Based
and Small Business Ideas
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May 22, 2009 ( PowerHomeBiz ) -
New Jersey, USA -
OK. The financial panic seems to be over. No major investment bank has
followed Lehman Brothers into that good night. AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac are totally, hopelessly bankrupt, but Uncle Sam is fully committed to
keeping the zombies shuffling. And while some (many?) of America's banks are
surely running on fumes, there's no doubt that the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation will cover deposits to the statutory maximum -- maybe much
further.
"This is a gloves-off call to action, from America's most authoritative
If you're like me and just about everybody I know, you lost a hefty chunk
of your savings in the past year and have been too shell-shocked to revisit
the scene of the crime. But duck-and-cover is not an adequate investment
strategy for the long term. Some day you'll have to get back in the saddle.
And the sooner you do, the more likely you'll be able to meet your savings
goals – whether it is college for the kids, a house in a better neighborhood
or retirement before you're too old to enjoy it. Here's a few tips (ten of
them, because the number makes for a catchier title) to ease the way back.
- Risk could be your ally. The idea of risking money to make money
seems so . . . 2006. But, truth be told, the alternatives look pretty
grim. The returns on riskless investments (insured bank CDs, short-term
U.S. Treasury securities) are wretchedly low -- probably negative when
you factor in taxes and inflation -- and are very likely to stay low for
several more years as the Federal Reserve pumps zillions into the
banking system. On the other hand, the prospects for stocks and bonds
looks pretty good providing the recession ends in 2010.
- Advisors aren't the same as friends. Virtually everybody prepared to
advise you on investments (I'm an exception) has a conflict of interest:
they won't make a living unless somebody buys the financial products they're
peddling. That doesn't mean you shouldn't seek advice, and take it if it
seems sensible. But it does mean that you need to go the extra mile, doing
your own research to confirm your first impressions and comparison-shopping
wherever possible.
- Fees can kill. When securities markets are flying high, it's
tempting to ignore the costs of investing. Who cares whether you pay .3
percent or 1.3 percent each year to the geniuses who run your mutual
fund if the fund appreciates by 20 or 30 percent. But, as we now know
too well, bad years have a way of taking the sheen off good ones. And if
the long term average return to your fund is really 6 percent not 20, an
extra percentage point off the top each year will make a big difference.
- Stock-picking is for suckers. Yes, it probably makes sense to own stocks
if you can bear some risk (see Tip #1) and don't expect to need the cash
anytime soon. But there are a thousand good reasons not to try to pick
winners yourself. It takes time, which probably could be spent earning an
honest living or playing paintball with the kids. It is relatively costly,
even in an era of low-cost online brokers. And it takes a will of iron not
to treat stock-picking as a socially respectable alternative to casino
gambling. Far, better, then, to do your investing through mutual funds.
- Stock-picking is for suckers, Part Deux. So you already knew that
mutual funds were the better way to go. Bet you didn't know that the
high-octane nerds at mutual funds who are paid fortunes to do the
picking on your behalf very rarely do better than they would by throwing
darts at The Wall Street Journal. Yes there are exceptions: Warren
Buffett and David Swenson (the guy who transformed Yale University's
endowment from a large fortune to an humongous one) come to mind. But
virtually all the serious research on the subject concludes that your
mutual fund is very unlikely to beat the market in the long run. So buy
mutual funds, by all means. But buy index mutual funds that use
computers to track the returns of the relevant market and charge
shareholders a pittance for the effort.
- Past performance is no indicator of future performance. If you've ever
read a mutual fund prospectus, you've read those words. But dollars to
doughnuts, you ignored what you read. Don't: the same researchers who have
proved (to my satisfaction anyway) that mutual fund managers rarely do
better than those proverbial monkeys at the typewriter have also shown that
it gets you nowhere picking mutual funds by last year's (or last decade's)
successes. So what's a body to do? See Tip #5.
- Remember about inflation. This year, thanks to the long-term efforts
of the Federal Reserve and the short-term consequences of the worst
economic downturn since the Depression, the cost of living will hardly
go up at all. I'm pretty sanguine about next year and the next, too. But
there's no telling what will happen five or ten years from now, and
there are reasons to be scared. Among them: trillion-dollar federal
budget deficits, out-of-control medical costs and the patience of the
Chinese government, which will one day stop lending us the money to buy
their tube socks and flat-screen TVs. You can't do much about inflation.
But you can protect yourself from the worst consequences by thinking
twice before making long-term, fixed income investments.
- Diversify, diversify, diversify. Yeah, you've heard this one before,
too. But I've got a few things to add. First, it is dumb to load up your
401(k) plan with the stock of your employer. You've already made a big bet
on your employer's future success simply by choosing to work there. Second,
real diversification is very hard. For example, buying a mutual fund that
owns European stocks instead of the domestic sort won't do a lot of good
since European stock markets usually fluctuate in synch with their American
counterparts. Real diversification is possible, but you gotta do your
homework (or pay someone else to do it).
- Bet against the dollar. The exchange value of the dollar has done
better than well during the current crisis -- seems that, in a pinch,
investors still see U.S. Treasury securities (which must be paid for
with dollars) as a refuge from the financial storms. But logic says this
won't last -- that investors (especially foreign government banks) will
tire of holding so much of their assets in dollar-denominate securities
and shift to euros, yen and eventually, Chinese renmimbi. How, then, can
you hedge against a dollar rout cheaply and efficiently? Probably the
best way is to buy exchange-traded mutual funds that simply track the
exchange value of major foreign currencies.
- Pay attention to your portfolio, but not much. For those who have been
afraid even to glance at their portfolios since the stock market cratered,
this may sound like preaching to the choir. But when markets start going up,
so will the temptation to look frequently -- and to chase the next hot tip
and the next. The sort of portfolio I like -- one consisting of a handful of
index funds -- should be tailored to your age, income and taste for risk.
Once you've got it right, don't change it unless the circumstances of your
life (as in age, income and taste for risk) change. ©2009 Peter Passell, author of Where to Put Your Money
NOW: How to Make Super-Safe Investments and Secure Your Future
Author Bio
Peter Passell, author of Where to Put Your Money NOW: How to Make
Super-Safe Investments and Secure Your Future, is a senior fellow at the
Milken Institute and the editor of the Milken Institute Review, and has been
a columnist for the New York Times. He is the author of many guides to
personal finance, including Where to Put Your Money, The Money Manual, and
How to Read the Financial Pages. For more information, please visit
http://www.peterpassell.com/
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